Published on 30 Mar 2024 on Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance
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The World Bank's food price index saw a decline throughout 2023, averaging 9% lower than in 2022 due to robust harvests, despite the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, some trade restrictions, and El Niño. Forecasts indicate a continued decrease in global food prices in 2024 and 2025, by 2 and 3 percent respectively, as worldwide supply improves. It is anticipated that global grain supplies will recover by 42 million metric tons in 2023-24, propelled by heightened maize exports but offset by declines in wheat and rice exports. There is an expectation of a 75 million metric ton increase in oilseed supply, particularly in soybean production surpassing the previous season's record, predominantly in Brazil. The stock-to-use ratio for the food aggregate is expected to stay steady, indicating sufficient supply conditions.
Agricultural projections are shaped by factors such as extreme weather events and economic concerns, both domestically and internationally. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which offers a forecast for agricultural markets over the next 12–18 months, highlighted that while demand for US meat remains strong, there has been a decrease in cattle numbers due to drought and high production costs. However, growth is anticipated in the pork and poultry industries. The outlook for livestock prices in 2024 is mixed, with an expected increase in beef and pork prices but a decline in prices for broilers and turkeys. Shifts in acreage appear to have a greater impact on crop production than ongoing drought conditions, with an increase in corn acreage and production but a decrease in soybean area and production. Changes in corn and soybean usage and exports impacted stocks and prices for both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 crop years. Overall, the outlook for US agriculture in 2024 indicates lower prices, mixed export and production trends, and declining incomes compared to previous years.