Is MTN Group Limited's (JSE:MTN) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

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Most readers would already be aware that MTN Group's (JSE:MTN) stock increased significantly by 9.3% over the past month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. In this article, we decided to focus on MTN Group's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

See our latest analysis for MTN Group

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for MTN Group is:

20% = R23b ÷ R115b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every ZAR1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ZAR0.20 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

MTN Group's Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

To start with, MTN Group's ROE looks acceptable. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 32%, we aren't very excited. However, we are pleased to see the impressive 22% net income growth reported by MTN Group over the past five years. We believe that there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So this certainly also provides some context to the high earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that MTN Group's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 4.9% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is MTN worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether MTN is currently mispriced by the market.

Is MTN Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

MTN Group has a three-year median payout ratio of 39% (where it is retaining 61% of its income) which is not too low or not too high. So it seems that MTN Group is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Additionally, MTN Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 22% over the next three years. Despite the lower expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with MTN Group's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company has seen significant growth in its earnings backed by a respectable ROE and a high reinvestment rate. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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